Predicting near-term, out-of-sample fish passage, guidance, and movement across diverse river environments by cognitively relating momentary behavioral decisions to multiscale memories of past hydrodynamic experiences

Predicting the behavior of individuals acting under their own motivation is a challenge shared across multiple scientific fields, from economic to ecological systems. In rivers, fish frequently change orientation even when stimuli are unchanged, which makes understanding and predicting movement in time-varying environments near built infrastructure particularly challenging. Cognition central movement, our lack costly terms time resources needed design manage water operations that able meet needs human society while preserving valuable living resources. An open question how best cognitively account for multi-modal, -attribute, -alternative, context-dependent decision-making infrastructure. Here, we leverage agent- individual-based modeling techniques encode cognitive approach mechanistic operates at scale river engineered managed. Our uses Eulerian-Lagrangian-agent method (ELAM) interpret quantitatively predict passage/entrainment different conditions. A goal methodology theory equations can provide an interpretable version animal complex requires minimal number parameters order facilitate application new data real-world engineering management projects. We first describe concepts, theory, mathematics applicable animals aquatic, terrestrial, avian, subterranean domains. Then, detail juvenile Pacific salmonids Bay-Delta California. reproduce observations salmon with one field season measurements, year 2009, using five simulated responses 3-D hydrodynamics. ELAM model calibrated 2009 data, later season, 2014, included novel guidance boom not present 2009. Central model’s performance notion attuned more than hydrodynamic signal timescale. find multi-timescale perception disentangle multiplex signals inform context-based behavioral choice fish. Simulated make decisions within rapidly changing environment without global information, knowledge direction downriver/upriver, or path integration. The key speed, spatial gradient acceleration, swim bladder pressure. selective tidal stream transport superset fish-hydrodynamic repertoire reproduces passage dam reservoir environments. From ecology perspective, emerge each tailored suit animal’s recent past experience (localized environmental context). paths same local stimuli. findings demonstrate does always require maximum possible spatiotemporal resolution representing although there concomitant tradeoffs resolving features scales. show decision-support tool successfully operate outside calibration conditions, necessary attribute tools informing future actions world will invariably look past.